Interview: As the share market dips, where are the opportunities?

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Sean Aylmer: Welcome to the Fear and Greed Business Interview. I’m Sean

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Sean Aylmer: Aylmer. Global share markets, including Australian equities are, I suppose,

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Sean Aylmer: in the doldrums is one way of putting it. Markets

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Sean Aylmer: in the US and locally are down 7 and 6%

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Sean Aylmer: respectively since their July highs, a little more perhaps, and

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Sean Aylmer: there’s not a lot of confidence about the next few

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Sean Aylmer: months. Naturally, when some sectors seem relatively cheap within equities,

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Sean Aylmer: investors start looking for opportunities. So I wanted to talk

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Sean Aylmer: to one of our regular guests about what he’s seeing

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Sean Aylmer: in the market right now. Remember, this information is general

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Sean Aylmer: in nature and you should seek professional advice before making

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Sean Aylmer: any investment decisions. Matthew Kidman is the principal at Centennial

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Sean Aylmer: Asset Management. Matthew, welcome back to Fear and Greed.

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Matthew Kidman: Hi, Sean, how are you?

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Sean Aylmer: Well, thank you. I went away for five weeks, Matthew,

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Sean Aylmer: or four and a half weeks, and I thought the

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Sean Aylmer: world was okay, get back this week and oh my.

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Sean Aylmer: What is going on?

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Matthew Kidman: Yeah, we’re definitely blaming you. You were the catalyst for

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Matthew Kidman: markets to roll over, so can you stay put for

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Matthew Kidman: a few weeks? I know that’s hard for you, but

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Matthew Kidman: that’d be nice if you could just stay at the

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Matthew Kidman: desk. Yeah, it’s been tough, and I think the catalyst

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Matthew Kidman: for equity markets to be soft and Australia’s probably done

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Matthew Kidman: worse than even the US where the problem really exists,

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Matthew Kidman: where we’ve got bond yields shooting up again in terms

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Matthew Kidman: of the yields and the actual bonds, the inverse correlation

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Matthew Kidman: with prices down, yields up. And it’s not really about

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Matthew Kidman: inflation because the short interest rate or the short- term

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Matthew Kidman: rate that’s set by the central banks is well above the

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Matthew Kidman: existing inflation rate now. It’s more about the fact that the

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Matthew Kidman: US has seen its economic growth accelerate when it’s defied

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Matthew Kidman: all logic and all forecasts. When rates have gone up,

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Matthew Kidman: it was supposed to slow, but for the moment, the

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Matthew Kidman: US economy’s chugging along and rates have gone higher and equity markets

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Matthew Kidman: don’t like that.

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Sean Aylmer: When we talk about bond yields being high, just explain why bond

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Sean Aylmer: yields matter so much because they kind of set the

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Sean Aylmer: benchmark, don’t they?

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Matthew Kidman: Yeah, it’s interesting. Two things set the valuation for the

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Matthew Kidman: stock market or equities as we call them. One is

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Matthew Kidman: earnings. How much can a company earn and how quickly

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Matthew Kidman: those earnings grow. So if you’ve got a fast- growing

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Matthew Kidman: company, that’s earnings are going up every year, we’ll pay

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Matthew Kidman: a lot for that. But the other side of it

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Matthew Kidman: is the bond yield and the 10- year bond yield’s

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Matthew Kidman: important. Why do we always quote that part of it?

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Matthew Kidman: Because that’s the standard that we use for discounting earnings

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Matthew Kidman: into the future. So the higher the yield, the quicker

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Matthew Kidman: we’ve got to discount it. So $ 100 in three years’

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Matthew Kidman: time, if you’ve got to discount it with a bigger

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Matthew Kidman: number, it’s worth less today. If it’s a smaller number,

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Matthew Kidman: say if the 10- year bond yield was 1%, we discount

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Matthew Kidman: it at a slower rate. So the valuation’s higher today, if that

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Matthew Kidman: makes sense. So it’s a critical element. It’s 50% of

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Matthew Kidman: the equation.

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Sean Aylmer: Okay. So given what’s happening in the market, and yesterday

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Sean Aylmer: was a bit of a horror date for the market,

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Sean Aylmer: is the market oversold, I’m talking about the local market,

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Sean Aylmer: do you think there are opportunities? What’s your take on

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Sean Aylmer: the ASX?

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Matthew Kidman: I think we’re getting to that stage. As I said,

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Matthew Kidman: keep a close eye on that US 10- year bond

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Matthew Kidman: yield. Back in October last year, it got to about 4.2, 4.

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Matthew Kidman: 25 and, this is a year ago, everyone saw a

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Matthew Kidman: slowdown coming in the economy and we saw inflation coming

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Matthew Kidman: down. So the bond yield actually started to go down.

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Matthew Kidman: It went back down into the threes and the equity market

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Matthew Kidman: rallied. And we thought, well, this is the beginning of

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Matthew Kidman: a rally, but more recently that growth spiked, economic growth,

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Matthew Kidman: and the bond yields have gone back up and they’ve

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Matthew Kidman: gone right past that 4. 25. It sat there for

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Matthew Kidman: a while and went to 4.7, 4. 75, around that

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Matthew Kidman: level. Equities have come off.
But I get the feeling

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Matthew Kidman: that there’s a little bit of a spike, a little

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Matthew Kidman: bit of adrenaline in that bond market. Everyone’s selling it

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Matthew Kidman: off, and it might be just reaching a short- term

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Matthew Kidman: high. Just keep an eye on it, but I think

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Matthew Kidman: you’re right. And once, if it does come back down,

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Matthew Kidman: if it drops away from, say it gets to 4.9 maybe in the next

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Matthew Kidman: week, then drops away, then you want to be back

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Matthew Kidman: in the equity market because as we said before, that

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Matthew Kidman: discount rate changes and it would turn around again like

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Matthew Kidman: it did last October.

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Sean Aylmer: Are there certain sectors that you’re better, that have safer

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Sean Aylmer: plays at the moment?

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Matthew Kidman: Well, that’s an interesting one. On a day where markets

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Matthew Kidman: are down, 1, 1.5% a bit earlier in the day,

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Matthew Kidman: then everything gets hit a bit. And so not really,

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Matthew Kidman: but over time, obviously you want defensive earnings. If interest

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Matthew Kidman: rates are going up, you want companies that are defensive

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Matthew Kidman: because higher rates in the long- term means that economies

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Matthew Kidman: slow down, earnings slow down, so you want those defensives.

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Matthew Kidman: But I would argue that that’s not a great place

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Matthew Kidman: because a lot of the Australian defensive stocks, whether it

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Matthew Kidman: be in healthcare, whether it be in food or telcos,

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Matthew Kidman: those things that we’ve got to spend on day by

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Matthew Kidman: day have probably got a little bit expensive and not

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Matthew Kidman: that attractive.
So I think the play is to maybe

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Matthew Kidman: go the other way and assume that once rates come

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Matthew Kidman: back down, buy those higher growth stocks and higher multiple

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Matthew Kidman: stocks that do better when rates are lower. What does

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Matthew Kidman: that mean? The technology stocks that have been sold off,

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Matthew Kidman: the quality end of the market, whether it be the

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Matthew Kidman: healthcare growth, things like a Cochlear or a tech platform

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Matthew Kidman: like an REA, stocks like that, when rates come back

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Matthew Kidman: down, they will rally because they are higher growth stocks

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Matthew Kidman: and they get hit harder when rates go up.

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Sean Aylmer: Stay with me, Matthew, we’ll be back in a minute.

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Sean Aylmer: My guest this morning is Matthew Kidman, Principal at Centennial

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Sean Aylmer: Asset Management. Banks are such a big part of the

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Sean Aylmer: market. How’s all this work with the banks?

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Matthew Kidman: I’m so glad you’ve asked me that, Sean, because every time

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Matthew Kidman: we’ve ever spoken, you’ve got to ring up the banks

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Matthew Kidman: and I know that’s right in your wheelhouse. You’ve got

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Matthew Kidman: a long history following Australian banks. Look, I’ve said all

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Matthew Kidman: along that I don’t think the banks represent great value,

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Matthew Kidman: and I stick by that. There’s a number of ways

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Matthew Kidman: we can measure the valuations of banks, but typically professional

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Matthew Kidman: investors look at book value and that’s all the loans

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Matthew Kidman: out there they lend out and what they’ve got to

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Matthew Kidman: pay to lend that money. And the difference is effectively

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Matthew Kidman: the book value.
Typically, book values in Australia among the

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Matthew Kidman: big four banks should be 1.3, 1. 4, 1. 5 times. If

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Matthew Kidman: it gets down to one times, that’s a buy. Typically,

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Matthew Kidman: if it gets above 1. 5, it’s probably getting expensive.

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Matthew Kidman: CBAs a little bit different. It’s the quality end. It gets

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Matthew Kidman: a better return than everyone else on the capital that

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Matthew Kidman: it deploys. So it sits closer to two times book.

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Matthew Kidman: And nothing screams cheap in that area at the moment.

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Matthew Kidman: And, of course, they’ve remodeled themselves over the years away

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Matthew Kidman: from business lending, much more towards home lending, and the

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Matthew Kidman: housing market’s still in the midst of a slowdown. It

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Matthew Kidman: could turn around quite quickly, don’t get me wrong, but

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Matthew Kidman: at the moment it doesn’t stand out to me as

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Matthew Kidman: a great place to be in the market.

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Sean Aylmer: What about small caps? Now we have spoken about the

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Sean Aylmer: fact that small caps have been discounted against other sectors

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Sean Aylmer: of the market over time. Is that coming back? Where’s

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Sean Aylmer: that up to? Would you buy small caps, particularly given

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Sean Aylmer: yields are so high and there is uncertainty about the economy?

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Matthew Kidman: I think it’s the place to be, but you’ve got

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Matthew Kidman: to have a timeframe. It’s definitely underperformed. The XSO, the small ordinaries

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Matthew Kidman: as we call them, which covers the whole sector, all

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Matthew Kidman: the different industries from industrials through to resources, has underperformed

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Matthew Kidman: dramatically over the last year and a half, two years.

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Matthew Kidman: I think underperformed by about 20%. There’s definitely better value

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Matthew Kidman: there compared to the big end of the market, but at the

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Matthew Kidman: same time, it’s more exposed to domestic conditions and we

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Matthew Kidman: know domestic conditions are slowing, not falling off the edge of the cliff,

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Matthew Kidman: but slowing. And of course there’s still inflationary environment here.

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Matthew Kidman: So I think valuation wise, it’s the place to be.

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Matthew Kidman: If you’ve got a two- year time horizon, start looking

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Matthew Kidman: over your small caps options that are out there because

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Matthew Kidman: I think you will win over that timeframe. In even

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Matthew Kidman: the last five weeks since you’ve been away and you’ve

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Matthew Kidman: come back, they’ve underperformed again. And that is mainly around

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Matthew Kidman: this fear about rates going higher, economies slowing, lack of

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Matthew Kidman: liquidity. It doesn’t feel right to be there, but I

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Matthew Kidman: think over that broader timeframe, that’s where the value sits.

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Sean Aylmer: Any that you particularly like?

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Matthew Kidman: There’s lots of sectors that we keep looking at and

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Matthew Kidman: we’d love to buy, but we’re lucky in the sense

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Matthew Kidman: that we haven’t got a massive fund and we don’t

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Matthew Kidman: have to move too early, but there’s a lot of bombed-

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Matthew Kidman: out sectors and we will move in because that’s where

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Matthew Kidman: we like to hunt. There’s a handful of different retailers

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Matthew Kidman: that have been sold off. There’s a handful of different

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Matthew Kidman: finance companies that have been sold off. There’s media, there’s

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Matthew Kidman: even car retailers and so on.
So there’s a whole

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Matthew Kidman: section of the community that, probably one way to sum

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Matthew Kidman: it up, is exposed to the consumer because we keep

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Matthew Kidman: hearing about the mortgage cliff, everyone’s fearful of it. We’re

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Matthew Kidman: going from fixed rates to variable rates, switching back, those

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Matthew Kidman: who have got a mortgage, and that’s a lot higher

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Matthew Kidman: rate than you’re going to pay on your house and it hits you overnight. We’re a

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Matthew Kidman: fair way through that, so I’m not as fearful as

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Matthew Kidman: others, but that’s what’s keeping everyone away. But at some

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Matthew Kidman: stage there’ll be a trigger. And when you can buy

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Matthew Kidman: companies that are decent operators for nine, 10 times earnings,

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Matthew Kidman: if those earnings can hold in there and then accelerate

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Matthew Kidman: over a two- year period, then they’re the place to be.

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Sean Aylmer: Just one final question, a little removed. We have a

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Sean Aylmer: new Reserve Bank Governor, Michele Bullock, do you expect that

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Sean Aylmer: the fact that there is a new governor will make

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Sean Aylmer: much difference to how the bank operates then vis- a-

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Sean Aylmer: vis what that means for investors?

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Matthew Kidman: In one instance, no, she is cut from the same

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Matthew Kidman: cloth. She’s worked with the old governor for a long

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Matthew Kidman: time, thinks a similar way, assesses the data and monetary

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Matthew Kidman: policy in a similar fashion. And that’s the way you

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Matthew Kidman: would like it, because Phil Lowe was a very good

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Matthew Kidman: governor and she’s cut from the same cloth. And so when

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Matthew Kidman: she gives these press conferences now post the results, you

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Matthew Kidman: would expect her to give a similar… Like she did

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Matthew Kidman: yesterday. She said, ” We’re on hold for the moment, but

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Matthew Kidman: expect higher rates if inflation doesn’t come down. And we

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Matthew Kidman: reserve that right to lift rates.” And that’s what Phil

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Matthew Kidman: Lowe was saying.
I think where it could be different

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Matthew Kidman: is the overhaul of the Reserve Bank, which has given

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Matthew Kidman: more power to the actual Reserve Bank Board and the

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Matthew Kidman: committees that are within that board where it has to

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Matthew Kidman: get consensus. I have no idea how they will be

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Matthew Kidman: thinking and what message they will be telling the governor

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Matthew Kidman: to go out and tell the public. Previously, as we

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Matthew Kidman: know, the governor and his team or her team would

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Matthew Kidman: present something to the board, they’d discuss it, but they

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Matthew Kidman: normally back the experts, the economist. That’s been turned on

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Matthew Kidman: its head and now it’s the committee who makes the

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Matthew Kidman: decision and the governor’s got to sell that decision to

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Matthew Kidman: the public. And I don’t know how that’s going to

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Matthew Kidman: play out. It might be the same. I don’t think

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Matthew Kidman: she’s any different, but the process has changed, and so

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Matthew Kidman: we’ve just got to watch it carefully what it means

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Matthew Kidman: in the longer run.

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Sean Aylmer: Matthew, thank you for talking to Fear and Greed.

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Matthew Kidman: Thanks very much, Sean.

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Sean Aylmer: That was Matthew Kidman, Principal of Centennial Asset Management. This

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Sean Aylmer: is the Fear and Greed Business Interview. Remember, this information

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Sean Aylmer: is general in nature and you should seek professional advice

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Sean Aylmer: before making any investment decisions. Join us every morning for

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Sean Aylmer: the full episode of Fear and Greed, Australia’s best business

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Sean Aylmer: podcast. I’m Sean Aylmer. Have a great day.