Sales jump but labour slows, a (Taylor) Swift-led recovery, Charles III feeling the pinch

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Michael Thompson: Retail sales surge while they’re assigned, the labor market is

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Michael Thompson: slowing. Ken Taylor Swift saved the Australian economy from a

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Michael Thompson: recession? And even the King of England is worried about

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Michael Thompson: the cost of living. It’s Friday, the 30th of June

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Michael Thompson: 2023. Welcome to Fear and Greed, Australia’s most popular business

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Michael Thompson: podcast. I’m Michael Thompson, and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Sean Aylmer: Good morning. Great intro, Michael. Great intro.

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Michael Thompson: Did you ever think there would be a day where

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Michael Thompson: we would be talking about both Taylor Swift and King

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Michael Thompson: Charles in the intro to Fear and Greed?

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Sean Aylmer: No, I didn’t. I didn’t. That’s very true. But she’s

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Sean Aylmer: a queen of pop, I suppose. So there’s some sort

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Sean Aylmer: of link, maybe.

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Michael Thompson: It’s like you’re clutching at straws a little bit, Sean.

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Michael Thompson: After the show, you’ve got an interview coming up. This

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Michael Thompson: is interesting stuff. Paul Weingarth is your guest. He’s the co-

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Michael Thompson: founder and CEO of Slyp.

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Sean Aylmer: Yeah, all about smart receipts. So the big four banks

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Sean Aylmer: have backed Slyp, S- L- Y- P, the FinTech to

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Sean Aylmer: produce electronic receipts for purchases that are actually attached to

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Sean Aylmer: transactions in your bank account. Rather than having all these

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Sean Aylmer: paper receipts that inevitably you lose or they fade, you’ll

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Sean Aylmer: actually always have a record on your bank statement. It’s

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Sean Aylmer: a really fascinating little story.

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Michael Thompson: It means you really have no need to carry a

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Michael Thompson: wallet or anything ever again?

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Sean Aylmer: Yes.

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Michael Thompson: ‘Cause you’ll never be accumulating those little slips of paper.

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Sean Aylmer: That’s right.

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Michael Thompson: Oh, it’s a really interesting interview, and I particularly enjoy

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Michael Thompson: hearing about how they got the banks on board for

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Michael Thompson: this because that would just be the biggest challenge. But

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Michael Thompson: stick around for that. It’s coming up a little bit later

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Michael Thompson: on.
The main story this morning, Sean, retail sales jumped

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Michael Thompson: in May as shoppers took advantage of sales, but Market

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Michael Thompson: Watchers say it’s a one- off and households are actually

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Michael Thompson: cutting back spending due to higher interest rates.

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Sean Aylmer: Retail sales last month jumped by 0.7%, way above expectations

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Sean Aylmer: and certainly much more than the flat growth we saw

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Sean Aylmer: in April. It was a surprise given recent readings and

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Sean Aylmer: all the anecdotal news coming from retailers. Now, it’s worth

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Sean Aylmer: keeping in mind that the pace of retail growth is

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Sean Aylmer: still less than the pace of inflation, so while values

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Sean Aylmer: are rising, volumes are actually falling. During May, there was

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Sean Aylmer: a jump in newspaper and books retailing. One for you,

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Sean Aylmer: Michael, jump in books retailing. This might have been me

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Sean Aylmer: buying your book potentially.

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Michael Thompson: I wish books that, sorry.

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Sean Aylmer: Sure.

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Michael Thompson: No, no, keep going, keep going. I’m not going to do

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Michael Thompson: this again. Please keep going.

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Sean Aylmer: You will later on. There’s also a jump in recreational

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Sean Aylmer: good sales, pharmaceuticals and cosmetics, big rise in eating out,

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Sean Aylmer: but there were falls and clothing and soft goods and in-

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Sean Aylmer: department store sales. Interesting number to get this blip when

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Sean Aylmer: we know households aren’t spending as much at the moment.

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Michael Thompson: And there were Bureau of Statistics job vacancy figures out

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Michael Thompson: yesterday as well.

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Sean Aylmer: Yeah, very interesting. Quarterly vacancies fell by 2% over the

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Sean Aylmer: three months to May. They’re down by 10% from a

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Sean Aylmer: year ago, which is also in line with other labor

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Sean Aylmer: market indicators that have shown a slowing in business hiring

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Sean Aylmer: intentions and job advertisements. That’s not necessarily a bad thing

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Sean Aylmer: because we know that the Reserve Bank thinks the unemployment

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Sean Aylmer: rate needs to go up to take pressure off wage

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Sean Aylmer: rises, take pressure off inflation, and take pressure off interest

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Sean Aylmer: rate hikes. The ratio of job vacancies to the number

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Sean Aylmer: of people unemployed has fallen to 0. 84% from a

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Sean Aylmer: high of 0. 95% in June 2022. That was when

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Sean Aylmer: there was almost as many people unemployed as there were

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Sean Aylmer: jobs unheard of in most major economies back to 0.

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Sean Aylmer: 84. It’s still pretty high though. That of course still

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Sean Aylmer: keeps pressure on wages.

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Michael Thompson: Sean, we’ve had a fair bit of economic news this

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Michael Thompson: week. I suppose if you chuck it all into the

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Michael Thompson: Mix Master or the-

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Sean Aylmer: Oh, I like it.

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Michael Thompson: The KitchenAid or the Sunbeam or whatever it is that you-

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Sean Aylmer: The (inaudible) .

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Michael Thompson: … that you use. Yeah. The thermo mix. Even if you

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Michael Thompson: want to get high- tech, whack it all into the

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Michael Thompson: thermo mix, we’ve got an interest rate decision next week.

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Michael Thompson: Where do we stand?

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Sean Aylmer: It’s very much a judgment call from Reserve Bank. There

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Sean Aylmer: are signs that inflation is slowing, household consumption is slowing,

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Sean Aylmer: notwithstanding yesterday’s figures, but there are wages pressures. So I

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Sean Aylmer: don’t have an answer for you, but Michael, it is

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Sean Aylmer: June 30. It is the end of the fiscal year,

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Sean Aylmer: and fiscal year 2023 will forever be known as the

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Sean Aylmer: year of interest rate rises. The cash rate went from 0.

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Sean Aylmer: 85% on the 1st of July last year to 4.1% on

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Sean Aylmer: the 30th of June. Today, that is the fastest increase

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Sean Aylmer: on record.

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Michael Thompson: It’s not exactly a record we wanted to set, is it?

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Sean Aylmer: No. No, I don’t think so.

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Michael Thompson: All right. How did local markets perform yesterday, Sean?

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Sean Aylmer: The S& P/ ASX 200 closed down just a touch. Two

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Sean Aylmer: points to 7, 195 points. The market jumped on opening and

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Sean Aylmer: then spent the day falling back to where it started.

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Sean Aylmer: The tech stocks did best while utilities were worst among

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Sean Aylmer: the large caps, BHP and Rio Tinto were both off

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Sean Aylmer: more than 1%. ANZ Aristocrat Leisure in Bramble’s all went

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Sean Aylmer: about the same amount, 1% the other way. They’re about

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Sean Aylmer: all positive. Whilst Tech Global jumped 2.2%, REA Group was

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Sean Aylmer: nearly 3% higher. Best on the day was Domain Holdings

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Sean Aylmer: up more than 5%. Worst was Bega Cheese down about 6%.

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Michael Thompson: And international markets?

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Sean Aylmer: Well, look, it’s worth taking a look at Apple because

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Sean Aylmer: it hit yet another record high yesterday. The company is

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Sean Aylmer: now worth 2. 98 trillion US dollars. That’s about 4

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Sean Aylmer: trillion Aussie dollars, which as we’ve discussed before, is much

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Sean Aylmer: more than the value of the whole Australian superannuation sector.

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Sean Aylmer: Investors still think it has a way to run, thanks

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Sean Aylmer: to the virtual reality headsets it launched recently. Tesla’s another

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Sean Aylmer: one, which is nowhere near as big. It’s about US

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Sean Aylmer: 800 billion, I’d say about third the size of the

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Sean Aylmer: local housing market, but it has also had a great

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Sean Aylmer: year, and of course, there’s Chip make in Nvidia. It’s

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Sean Aylmer: up nearly 200% this year worth more than 1 trillion

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Sean Aylmer: US dollars. So half the size of the housing market.

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Sean Aylmer: Those US tech stocks just keep getting bigger and bigger.

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Sean Aylmer: Pretty remarkable. In commodity markets, oil prices are lower as

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Sean Aylmer: our gold prices. The Aussie dollar has also fallen, seemingly

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Sean Aylmer: caught up in the debate about higher interest rates in

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Sean Aylmer: the US and Australia.

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Michael Thompson: All right, there’s a bit going on. We’ll be back

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Michael Thompson: in a moment with the rest of the day’s business

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Michael Thompson: news. Sean, former New South Wales Premier, Gladys Berejiklian and will

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Michael Thompson: not face criminal charges despite engaging in corrupt conduct and

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Michael Thompson: breaching the public trust following the release of a three-

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Michael Thompson: year review by the state’s corruption watchdog.

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Sean Aylmer: The New South Wales Independent Commission Against Corruption found that

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Sean Aylmer: the then Premier should have disclosed her relationship, which ran

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Sean Aylmer: for up to five years with former Wagga Wagga Liberal

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Sean Aylmer: MP. Daryl Maguire. ICAC said the relationship posed a serious

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Sean Aylmer: conflict of interest. The commission also took exception to Berejiklian’s

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Sean Aylmer: failure to flag concern about Maguire’s conduct when it appeared

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Sean Aylmer: he could be corrupt. It was also scathing of her

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Sean Aylmer: decision to award a series of grants to regional arts

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Sean Aylmer: and sporting clubs in Maguire’s electorate without disclosing the relationship.

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Sean Aylmer: After the release of the report, Berejiklian said it had

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Sean Aylmer: done nothing to demonstrate that she had not acted in

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Sean Aylmer: the public interests. She also said her lawyers are taking

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Sean Aylmer: a close look at it.
There were a number of

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Sean Aylmer: state Liberal MPs yesterday who came out and spoke in

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Sean Aylmer: support of Berejiklian. She of course, is the third New

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Sean Aylmer: South Wales premier to be filled by the state’s corruption

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Sean Aylmer: watchdog. Nick Greiner went in 1992, who stepped down after

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Sean Aylmer: accusations. He misused his position. Barry O’Farrell stepped down in

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Sean Aylmer: 2014. He misled the commission over a gifted a bottle

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Sean Aylmer: of Grange Hermitage wine. Now, yesterday ICAC stopped short of

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Sean Aylmer: recommending Berejiklian’s case be referred to the State’s lawyers for

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Sean Aylmer: prosecution, but she certainly got a fair whack.

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Michael Thompson: Yeah, certainly did. What about though Daryl Maguire, who Berejiklian

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Michael Thompson: was in a close personal relationship with?

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Sean Aylmer: Yes, ICAC was much harsher on Maguire finding that he

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Sean Aylmer: committed misconduct in public office by using his position to

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Sean Aylmer: advance property deals and a Visa scheme, and for misusing

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Sean Aylmer: his parliamentary roles as an MP and as a chairman

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Sean Aylmer: of the parliamentary Asia Pacific Friendship Group. To advance his

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Sean Aylmer: own financial interests and those of his associates, ICAC has

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Sean Aylmer: recommended that the Department of Public Prosecution consider criminal charges

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Sean Aylmer: against him.

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Michael Thompson: All right. Switching to the federal level now, Sean, Australia

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Michael Thompson: is ready to provide an ongoing security presence in Solomon

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Michael Thompson: Islands, if requested.

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Sean Aylmer: Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Richard Marles, speaking from

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Sean Aylmer: Herniaria, has said Australia is committed to security in the region.

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Sean Aylmer: He said the Solomon Islands is due to hold the

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Sean Aylmer: Pacific Games in November and elections next April, and a

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Sean Aylmer: peaceful environment is critical for both events. Now, earlier in

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Sean Aylmer: the week, Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare issued a statement

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Sean Aylmer: after a meeting with Marles, calling for a review of

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Sean Aylmer: the current security treaty between the two countries to take

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Sean Aylmer: into account the changing security challenges faced by both countries.

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Sean Aylmer: When Marles was asked yesterday about that and whether he’d

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Sean Aylmer: been given any warning from Sogavare about the release, he

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Sean Aylmer: simply said, ” No.”

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Michael Thompson: Now, as John Toll Road Group, Transurban wants to buy

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Michael Thompson: a majority stake in Melbourne’s EastLink toll road operator, Horizon

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Michael Thompson: Roads. But the competition watchdog is concerned that if it

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Michael Thompson: gives the okay, Transurban will have too much power.

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Sean Aylmer: Yes, so the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission is concerned

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Sean Aylmer: that Transurban’s dominance will become entrenched and future bidders for

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Sean Aylmer: toll roads will basically just not try when they come

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Sean Aylmer: up against Transurban. There have already been reports that bidders

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Sean Aylmer: for tolerates in Australia have been put off by Transurban’s

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Sean Aylmer: dominance, and that’s what’s worrying the ACCC. Now, it might

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Sean Aylmer: be around accessing finance or the cost of finance. It

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Sean Aylmer: might be around being able to better model traffic flows

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Sean Aylmer: and understand the value of these toll roads. The good

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Sean Aylmer: news for Transurban is that some of the other concerns were

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Sean Aylmer: waived through with the ACCC saying Victorian state regulations governing

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Sean Aylmer: pricing prevents any listing of competition in toll’s charged and

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Sean Aylmer: services provided.

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Michael Thompson: The head of Gold and Copper Group, Newcrest says, the

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Michael Thompson: mining sector must overhaul its reputation and leadership style if

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Michael Thompson: it’s to dig out enough minerals for climate targets to

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Michael Thompson: be reached.

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Sean Aylmer: Ah, interesting. This industry also needs to work with government

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Sean Aylmer: to quicken approvals with bureaucratic under- resourcing a problem. That’s

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Sean Aylmer: according to Newcrest Interim Chief Executive Sherry Duhe, she was

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Sean Aylmer: talking at the World Mining Congress in Brisbane yesterday. She said, ”

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Sean Aylmer: Projections show meeting demand for metals required for decarbonization means

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Sean Aylmer: the world needs more copper in the next 27 years

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Sean Aylmer: than its mined in the last 125 years plus.” That’s

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Sean Aylmer: according to report and the financial review. That basically means deeper

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Sean Aylmer: and bigger mines. Also at the conference was Treasurer Jim

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Sean Aylmer: Chalmers. He said mining is a critical source of national

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Sean Aylmer: wealth, a force for good like that one. He also

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Sean Aylmer: said the government needs to work with the sector. They’re

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Sean Aylmer: the two won’t always agree on everything.

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Michael Thompson: That’s interesting, isn’t it? The head of a large company

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Michael Thompson: like Newcrest calling on larger bureaucracy arguing in favor of

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Michael Thompson: bigger government, that’s a bit Topsy- Turvy, isn’t it?

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Sean Aylmer: Yes. I hadn’t thought of it that way. She didn’t. She’s talking about bureaucratic under-

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Sean Aylmer: resourcing. Maybe. Which one’s more efficient bureaucracy.

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Michael Thompson: Maybe. I’m a bit of a deep thinker today, Sean.

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Sean Aylmer: You are. This next story will stop that.

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Michael Thompson: Oh, good. Excellent. Going down a rabbit hole. Let’s go

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Michael Thompson: down a different one altogether. Air New Zealand is adding

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Michael Thompson: flights between Wellington, Christchurch, and Auckland to Sydney and Melbourne

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Michael Thompson: to cater for the swift surge. Sean.

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Sean Aylmer: That is the Taylor Swift surge. The announcement of Swift

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Sean Aylmer: tour dates led to a big jump in demand from

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Sean Aylmer: New Zealand for trips to Australia. In fact, there’s more

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Sean Aylmer: than 3, 500 bookings coinciding with her tour dates. Now,

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Sean Aylmer: there are more tickets out today and Air New Zealand

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Sean Aylmer: expects yet another surge. The local tour dates are February

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Sean Aylmer: 16 to 25. Three shows in Sydney, two in Melbourne.

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Sean Aylmer: Not sure whether you’ve got your tickets yet, Michael. I haven’t.

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Michael Thompson: I’ll tell you what, I did spend. I spent quite

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Michael Thompson: a bit of time on the Ticketek website the other day,

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Michael Thompson: and I was wondering why it was crashing. I was

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Michael Thompson: trying to buy tickets to the school’s concert, our local

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Michael Thompson: school concert, which tickets went on sale at 10:00 AM

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Michael Thompson: the same day as Taylor Swift tickets went on. I’m like, ” Oh,

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Michael Thompson: I don’t think anyone checked the calendar when this one

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Michael Thompson: went on.”

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Sean Aylmer: Oh my God.

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Michael Thompson: What is going on? Why does this site keep crashing?

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Michael Thompson: And then I had my answer.

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Sean Aylmer: Yours probably won’t sell out. Actually, that’s not true. The school

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Sean Aylmer: concert does sell out.

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Michael Thompson: I know.

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Sean Aylmer: It’s quite amazing.

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Michael Thompson: And the pressure is quite extreme, and suddenly all the

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Michael Thompson: Facebook groups for the school kind of light up with

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Michael Thompson: is everyone else having problems getting onto to Ticketek to buy

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Michael Thompson: this, and they sold out in an instant. So beat

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Michael Thompson: that Taylor.

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Sean Aylmer: Yeah. Huh. Take that. Now, you do know there’s been

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Sean Aylmer: a lot of talk about a Swift- led boost to

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Sean Aylmer: consumer confidence and spending just as a full impact of

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Sean Aylmer: higher interest rates is hitting. In fact, a few economists

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Sean Aylmer: have talked about it. But I loved AMP economist, Diana

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Sean Aylmer: Mousina’s comment saying, ” The economy will be slowing, interest will

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Sean Aylmer: be hitting early next year.” Then Taylor arrives. Her comment was, ”

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Sean Aylmer: If Taylor Swift can prevent an Australian recession, then she’s

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Sean Aylmer: an even bigger queen than I thought.”

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Michael Thompson: That’s fantastic, isn’t it?

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Sean Aylmer: Yeah.

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Michael Thompson: Anyway, I’m sure, Sean, this will not be the last

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Michael Thompson: Taylor Swift story we have.

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Sean Aylmer: No, I’m sure it won’t be.

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Michael Thompson: Now from Taylor Swift to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

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Sean Aylmer: Very similar. Very similar.

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Michael Thompson: What a transition, huh? We are obviously now into international

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Michael Thompson: news and we had Jerome Powell telling the ECB forum

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Michael Thompson: on central banking that more rate hikes are coming this

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Michael Thompson: year for the world’s largest economy.

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Sean Aylmer: Do you reckon Taylor Swift would be interested in this story?

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Michael Thompson: I reckon she would because-

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Sean Aylmer: Oh, I reckon she (inaudible) .

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Michael Thompson: … she does seem like a very, very savvy business person.

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Sean Aylmer: Ah, that is very true. She’s clearly very switched on.

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Sean Aylmer: She’d be interested in interest rates, probably cost of living.

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Sean Aylmer: Precious wouldn’t worry her so much.

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Michael Thompson: Oh, wait for the story. Got coming up a little bit

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Michael Thompson: later on, Sean.

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Sean Aylmer: Yeah. Anyway, Jerome Powell, he also said he wouldn’t take

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Sean Aylmer: consecutive rate hikes off the table. Now, Powell wasn’t alone

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Sean Aylmer: in his predictions. The Head of the European Central Bank,

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Sean Aylmer: Christine Lagarde, and the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey,

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Sean Aylmer: both said they had a way to go to reign

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Sean Aylmer: inflation, which is still too high. The odd person out

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Sean Aylmer: at the meeting was the head of the Central Bank

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Sean Aylmer: of Japan who said, rates are on hold in the

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Sean Aylmer: world’s third- largest economy. All in all, bad news all around. Kazuo

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Sean Aylmer: said, part of the reason we mentioned that the Aussie

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Sean Aylmer: dollars getting caught in this whole interest rate debate and

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Sean Aylmer: the fact that these big economies are going to lift

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Sean Aylmer: rates that’s hurting the Aussie dollar.

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Michael Thompson: Sean, human remains have likely been recovered from the wreckage

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Michael Thompson: of the submersible that imploded during an underwater voyage to

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Michael Thompson: view the Titanic. This is according to the US Coast Guard.

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Sean Aylmer: The news came out after the announcement that debris from

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Sean Aylmer: the Titan collected from the sea floor more than 3,

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Sean Aylmer: 600 meters below the surface of the North Atlantic had

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Sean Aylmer: arrived in St. John’s Newfoundland. Recovering and scrutinizing the wreckage

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Sean Aylmer: is a key part of the investigation into why the

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Sean Aylmer: Titan imploded last week, killing all five people on board.

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Sean Aylmer: The presumed human remains will be taken to the US.

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Sean Aylmer: Medical professionals will conduct a formal analysis and we will

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Sean Aylmer: hear more about it.

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Michael Thompson: Yeah, we certainly will. All right. Last one, Sean, and we kind

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Michael Thompson: of mentioned this at the beginning of the show and

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Michael Thompson: also just before with Taylor Swift, but the rising cost

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Michael Thompson: of living is hitting everyone. Maybe not Taylor, but it

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Michael Thompson: is hitting the King of England with Charles ordering the

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Michael Thompson: heating in royal homes to be turned down to cut emissions.

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Sean Aylmer: Yes, so the annual Sovereign Grant report, which details the

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Sean Aylmer: Royal’s taxpayer- funded spending and income detail that the crown

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Sean Aylmer: estate, that’s the London property portfolio belonging to the monarchy,

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Sean Aylmer: had fallen by 500 million pounds to 7.2 billion pounds

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Sean Aylmer: according to Reuters. Now, this was driven by a drop

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Sean Aylmer: in the value of retail space as consumers tighten their

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Sean Aylmer: belts due to the rising cost of living. About 20%

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Sean Aylmer: of the Crown Estates properties are vacant or unoccupied. So

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Sean Aylmer: the king’s really feeling the pinch here, 20% unoccupied. Ouch.

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Sean Aylmer: The report also said that the King said thermostats should

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Sean Aylmer: be turned down to 19 degrees to cut greenhouse gas

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Sean Aylmer: emissions in keeping with his long- term environmental campaigning.

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Michael Thompson: All right, well it certainly has been a varied show

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Michael Thompson: today, Sean. Up next, you have a really good interview

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Michael Thompson: with Paul Weingarth the co- founder and CEO of Slyp, S- L- Y- P.

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Sean Aylmer: Yes. All about receipts, dockets from purchasing products and how

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Sean Aylmer: Slyp, it’s a FinTech being backed by the Big Four Banks, is trying

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Sean Aylmer: to get the point where you’ll actually get those receipts

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Sean Aylmer: electronically attached to your bank statements. Fascinating.

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Michael Thompson: Yeah it is. It’s coming up next in the Fear

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Michael Thompson: and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at fearandgreed. com.

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Michael Thompson: au. Sean, do you know what we haven’t had all week

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Michael Thompson: this week?

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Sean Aylmer: Ah, AMIA, I bet you’re about to say.

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Michael Thompson: I am about to say AMIA. Thank you for guessing

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Michael Thompson: correctly. The most enthusiastic advocate, AMIA and the AMIA this

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Michael Thompson: week is a listener by the name of Sally. And

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Michael Thompson: Sally is a daily listener to Fear and Greed, a

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Michael Thompson: weekly listener to How Do They Afford That, which is

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Michael Thompson: our sister podcast. I am led to believe that Sally

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Michael Thompson: has also read a certain novel that’s out there at

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Michael Thompson: the moment. I promised I will not mention, and I

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Michael Thompson: believe she also listens to the Weekend Edition, which is

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Michael Thompson: coming up tomorrow.

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Sean Aylmer: Fantastic.

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Michael Thompson: It’s a very competitive show, that one and so definitely worth

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Michael Thompson: a listen. If you haven’t listened to it before we

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Michael Thompson: pick out the bigger story of the week and the

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Michael Thompson: Sleeper story and the most remarkable story and our favorite

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Michael Thompson: story, and it’s all judged by very subjective, slightly kind

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Michael Thompson: of biased judge, so it’s well worth a listen.
Just

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Michael Thompson: if you like listening to injustice, playing out live in

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Michael Thompson: your ears, listen to the Weekend Edition tomorrow morning. But

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Michael Thompson: anyway, Sally, thank you very much for listening. We understand

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Michael Thompson: that you’ve been listening to Fear and Greed while at home

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Michael Thompson: recovering from back surgery, so we are hope you are

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Michael Thompson: back up on your feet and back in the office

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Michael Thompson: again soon. Thank you very much for being a long-

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Michael Thompson: term listener to Fear and Greed. Thank you very much, Sean.

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Sean Aylmer: Thank you, Michael.

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Michael Thompson: It’s Friday, the 30th of June 2023. Make sure you’re

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Michael Thompson: following the podcast and join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, Twitter,

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Michael Thompson: and Facebook and stuff to date on all the business

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Michael Thompson: news with Alexa and your Amazon Echo Smart speaker, simply say, ”

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00:19:05,910 –> 00:19:08,279
Michael Thompson: Alexa, play the Fear and Greed podcast,” to catch the

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Michael Thompson: latest episode. You can get yours now at amazon. com.

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Michael Thompson: au. I’m Michael Thompson and that was Fear and Greed.

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Sean Aylmer: Have a great day.