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Fear & Greed, Fear and Greed

The Australian housing market looks to have fully recovered momentum, with capital city house prices posting steep gains in the June quarter.

Dr Nicola Powell, Domain’s Chief of Research and Economics, talks to Sean about how the lack of new listings has led to the “unusually strong jump”, and why she is sticking by her forecast of a steady, sustained recovery.

Find out more: https://fearandgreed.com.au

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Sean Aylmer: Welcome to the Fear & Greed Business interview. I’m Sean Aylmer.

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Sean Aylmer: The Australian housing market looks to have found its mojo

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Sean Aylmer: again. According to Domain, the last quarter saw capital- city

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Sean Aylmer: house prices post their steepest gain since 2021. In fact,

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Sean Aylmer: they’ve now recouped roughly half of the value lost in the

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Sean Aylmer: most recent downturn last year, and unit prices seem to

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Sean Aylmer: be heading up again also, at least in most major

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Sean Aylmer: cities.
Dr. Nicola Powell is Domain’s Chief of Research and

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Sean Aylmer: Economics. Nicola, welcome back to Fear & Greed.

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Nicola Powell: Thank you for having me back on. It’s an absolute pleasure.

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Sean Aylmer: So first, the stats. Just how big was the recovery

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Sean Aylmer: in the June quarter and even the half year, I

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Sean Aylmer: suppose, for housing first and then for units?

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Nicola Powell: Yeah. The June quarter was, I think, particularly poignant. We’ve

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Nicola Powell: got now every single capital city rising apart from Canberra. Canberra,

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Nicola Powell: we saw house prices flatline, but across the combined capitals,

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Nicola Powell: we saw house prices rise by 2.7% over the June quarter.

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Nicola Powell: So what that means is house prices were roughly rising

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Nicola Powell: about four times faster than the previous quarter, so it

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Nicola Powell: really showcases that momentum of price growth really gathered over

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Nicola Powell: the June quarter. And look, a similar outcome for unit prices,

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Nicola Powell: but just not quite as strong, and a little bit

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Nicola Powell: diverse across the different cities. On the combined capital- city level,

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Nicola Powell: we saw unit prices increase 2.6%, but that’s actually quite

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Nicola Powell: the turning point overall for unit prices. It’s actually the

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Nicola Powell: first quarterly increase since late 2021, and it’s the most

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Nicola Powell: substantial quarterly gain in two years. So it showcases that

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Nicola Powell: momentum and that acceleration that we are generally seeing in

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Nicola Powell: Australia’s housing market recovery.

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Sean Aylmer: Okay. So Sydney’s still leading the way?

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Nicola Powell: Of course it is. It absolutely is. We saw actually quite a jump

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Nicola Powell: in house prices in particular in Sydney. They rose 5.3%

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Nicola Powell: in the three months to June, and that is quite

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Nicola Powell: the rise for a quarter, and that’s four times faster

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Nicola Powell: than the previous quarter. And what we’ve got now is

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Nicola Powell: Sydney is the furthest along in its price recovery. So

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Nicola Powell: it’s roughly recouped about two thirds of what was lost

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Nicola Powell: during the term.

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Sean Aylmer: Wow.

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Nicola Powell: Yeah. We saw $151,000 lost from Sydney’s median house price.

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Nicola Powell: We have now seen $97,000 of that being recouped in

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Nicola Powell: just six months. So this rebound to date has been

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Nicola Powell: quite a quick one, and I think particularly so we

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Nicola Powell: really saw that acceleration over June.

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Sean Aylmer: Okay. I want to get into the reasons for it,

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Sean Aylmer: but just quickly, so Melbourne and Brisbane are also interesting

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Sean Aylmer: as well. So what’s happening there in those two cities?

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Nicola Powell: Yeah. So Melbourne and Brisbane are not as far along

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Nicola Powell: the property cycle as Sydney. What we saw: Melbourne has

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Nicola Powell: found a price drop, so has Brisbane, and they’re now into

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Nicola Powell: recovery mode. We’ve got house and unit prices rising again

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Nicola Powell: in Melbourne, and it’s actually the first quarterly increase in a year

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Nicola Powell: and a half for houses. So such a turnaround, which

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Nicola Powell: has followed five consecutive quarters of a decline. Look, a

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Nicola Powell: very similar story in Brisbane as well. We’ve seen Brisbane

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Nicola Powell: house prices continue to recover over the June quarter. I

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Nicola Powell: thought what’s quite interesting, though, is Brisbane’s downturn lasted six

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Nicola Powell: months and we’re now six months into a recovery. So

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Nicola Powell: we saw $47,000 lost in house price during the downturn. They’ve

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Nicola Powell: recouped about $14,000, so roughly about one third of that value

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Nicola Powell: has been recouped.

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Sean Aylmer: Why do you think Canberra is a laggard?

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Nicola Powell: Canberra’s that really interesting city. Canberra saw one of the steepest increases.

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Sean Aylmer: Hold on. Hold on, Nicola. I’m jumping in here. “Canberra

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Sean Aylmer: is a really interesting city,” is what you said.

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Nicola Powell: I did.

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Sean Aylmer: It’s a great city. It’s a great city. I’m going

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Sean Aylmer: to have lots of people angry at me for saying

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Sean Aylmer: that. I take it back. Great city, Canberra. Very interesting.

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Sean Aylmer: Go on.

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Nicola Powell: It is a wonderful city, and I think a wonderful city to raise children. Canberra is-

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Sean Aylmer: Oh, see, Nicola, that’s not helping the argument there when you

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Sean Aylmer: say it’s a wonderful city to raise children, which it

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Sean Aylmer: is. Sorry. So what’s happening in the housing market in

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Sean Aylmer: Canberra though?

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Nicola Powell: So Canberra saw one of the steepest increases during the pandemic,

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Nicola Powell: and I’m saying that because it’s important context to know

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Nicola Powell: in respect to the downturn and where it is now in

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Nicola Powell: the property price cycle. It’s only just found a price trough.

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Nicola Powell: So it found that price trough originally in March, over

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Nicola Powell: the March quarter, and it’s held at that price trough

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Nicola Powell: over the June quarter. Some of the highest growth was

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Nicola Powell: recorded in Canberra. It was Canberra and Hobart. And what we have

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Nicola Powell: saw during the downturn is Canberra saw the deepest decline

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Nicola Powell: out of all of the capital cities, fell 11.9% from

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Nicola Powell: its peak, and it’s only just found a price trough.

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Nicola Powell: I think the change in affordability… It became a million-dollar

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Nicola Powell: housing market during the pandemic. It reached that million- dollar mark.

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Nicola Powell: But also, one of the observations that I always take

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Nicola Powell: from Canberra’s housing market is when you have a look

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Nicola Powell: at demographic trends and what Canberra has or the ACT

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Nicola Powell: has at the moment is a negative outflow. So it’s losing

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Nicola Powell: residents to other states and territories. My observation is every

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Nicola Powell: time we tend to see that, we do see a

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Nicola Powell: blip in house prices. This is a fairly significant blip,

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Nicola Powell: and it’s the deepest decline that Canberra has ever experienced

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Nicola Powell: in terms of downturn. So it is slightly later in

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Nicola Powell: its property cycle, but I think what we’re likely to

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Nicola Powell: see now is it’s going to move into a steady recovery.

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Sean Aylmer: Stay with me, Nicola. We’ll be back in a minute.

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Sean Aylmer: I’m speaking to Dr. Nicola Powell, Chief of Research and

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Sean Aylmer: Economics at Domain. The reason for all this, leaving Canberra

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Sean Aylmer: aside now, so for the national capital cities, the reason

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Sean Aylmer: it remains strong demand, low supply, is that still the case?

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Nicola Powell: Fundamentally, yes. It sounds almost a very simplistic way of

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Nicola Powell: putting it, but we have seen this mismatch between supply

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Nicola Powell: and demand and really, it’s a usual trend during a downturn,

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Nicola Powell: where you see sellers just sit back and wait to

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Nicola Powell: see what happens. And I think that that reaction from

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Nicola Powell: sellers was even more poignant during this particular downturn, because

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Nicola Powell: of obviously rising interest rates and everything else that was

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Nicola Powell: occurring economically. So we saw a weak flow of new

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Nicola Powell: listings coming onto the market since spring of last year.

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Nicola Powell: That continued over 2023. But what we’re starting to see

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Nicola Powell: is demand started to rise. We still had that weak

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Nicola Powell: supply flow, but it started to change in more recent weeks,

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Nicola Powell: and what we started to see is an improvement in

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Nicola Powell: the flow of new listings. And when you look across

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Nicola Powell: the different capital cities, Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, and Darwin, what

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Nicola Powell: we’ve got now are new listings in these four capital cities

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Nicola Powell: are higher than the five-year average. This is a massive shift,

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Nicola Powell: particularly so in a city like Sydney, which really had

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Nicola Powell: a weak flow of new listings, and I think what we are

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Nicola Powell: likely to see is the June quarter was probably a

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Nicola Powell: strong performer in terms of the pace of growth, particularly

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Nicola Powell: in Sydney. 5.3% is quite a whopper in terms of

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Nicola Powell: the rate of price growth. And I think if we continue

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Nicola Powell: to see these new listings increase, what that’s likely to

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Nicola Powell: do is slow down the rate of price gain, which

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Nicola Powell: I think is a good news for both buyers and sellers.

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Nicola Powell: Selling conditions are still pretty strong, and we’ve got good

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Nicola Powell: conditions in auction markets, where we’ve got clearance rates above 70%

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Nicola Powell: on the combined capital-city level for the first time since

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Nicola Powell: October of 2021. So we have seen a vast improvement.

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Sean Aylmer: Okay. But what you’re saying there in those cities is

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Sean Aylmer: that it’s not that prices will go backwards. They will

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Sean Aylmer: continue to climb, just not as fast as they have been.

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Nicola Powell: Absolutely. Look, we still stand by our forecast, which we

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Nicola Powell: put out about five weeks ago now, and we are

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Nicola Powell: predicting that this financial year, we will see a slow

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Nicola Powell: and steady pricing recovery across our capital cities. We still

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Nicola Powell: stand by that. I do think that that jump over

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Nicola Powell: the June quarter was an unusually strong one spurred by

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Nicola Powell: this constant lack of new listings, but that tide, as

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Nicola Powell: I said, is starting to change, and it’s going to

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Nicola Powell: be a trend to watch if we continue to see

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Nicola Powell: that being strong in terms of that flow of new

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Nicola Powell: listings. And we all know that when it comes to

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Nicola Powell: spring, you see that listings boost, but the question is

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Nicola Powell: how strong is that listings boost going to be? And

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Nicola Powell: I think once we see that unravel, it’s going to

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Nicola Powell: be able to help us understand where and the depth

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Nicola Powell: of price growth in terms of what we’ll see in

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Nicola Powell: the coming quarters.

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Sean Aylmer: Okay. There’s been a bit around in the media in

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Sean Aylmer: the past week or so about investors selling up. What

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Sean Aylmer: does that mean for the market?

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Nicola Powell: Yeah, there has been, and look, I think when you

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Nicola Powell: think about an increase in investment activity or investors selling up,

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Nicola Powell: they’re going to be in those prime investment suburbs, which

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Nicola Powell: aren’t necessarily those areas that are owner-occupier dominated. So it

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Nicola Powell: might not necessarily be the right stock that’s coming onto the market,

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Nicola Powell: and I do think that there is still going to be

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Nicola Powell: this high competition for quality family homes in the right suburbs.

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Nicola Powell: But I also think, on the flip side of that,

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Nicola Powell: it’s great news for first-home buyers, because what you tend

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Nicola Powell: to find is investors and first- home buyers compete for

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Nicola Powell: similar priced properties, and if we’ve got investors selling up,

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Nicola Powell: that’s good news for first-home buyers. It’s not necessarily good

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Nicola Powell: news for the rental market because if we see rental

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Nicola Powell: supply dwindle any further, it’s going to create a very

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Nicola Powell: dire situation in the rental market.

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Sean Aylmer: Okay. Now, whatever happened to the mortgage cliff, Nicola? I’ve

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Sean Aylmer: forgotten about the mortgage cliff. Aren’t we all supposed to

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Sean Aylmer: be falling off the cliff and people rolling off those

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Sean Aylmer: lower fixed-rate mortgages under higher variable rates, and a disaster

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Sean Aylmer: was coming? What’s happened?

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Nicola Powell: Look, very interesting question. Look, this has been one that

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Nicola Powell: we’ve been tracking pretty intensively. We look at this on

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Nicola Powell: listings on Domain, and we look at those that are

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Nicola Powell: deemed as distressed listings, and that’s by associated words, whether

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Nicola Powell: they’re must-sell, mortgage-repossessed, and the trend that we are seeing is overall,

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Nicola Powell: distressed listings remain contained, and in some capital cities, they’re

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Nicola Powell: actually falling. In Sydney, we’ve seen them consistently fall as

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Nicola Powell: a percentage of total listings over this year to date.

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Nicola Powell: What I would say to that, though: there are certain

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Nicola Powell: pockets of weakness, and this is what I would expect to see.

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Nicola Powell: We are going to see areas, particularly in the mortgage belt,

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Nicola Powell: particularly in Sydney, where you’ve got to be highly leveraged

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Nicola Powell: to gain access to that market. So I’m talking areas

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Nicola Powell: like the west of Sydney, out of Southwest, Blacktown, those

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Nicola Powell: much more affordable areas where perhaps people stretch themselves financially.

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Nicola Powell: We’re starting to see an increase in distressed listings there.

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Nicola Powell: But also, going back to what we were saying about

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Nicola Powell: an increase in listings, part of my thinking is here,

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Nicola Powell: why are we seeing an unseasonable lift in new listings?

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Nicola Powell: I think for two reasons. Firstly, we can’t disregard the pent-

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Nicola Powell: up supply that’s been building since spring of last year.

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Nicola Powell: I think the persistent recovery in our housing market has

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Nicola Powell: been enough to be a draw card for sellers to go, ” Right,

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Nicola Powell: now is the time.” But the second reason is I

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Nicola Powell: think what we’re probably seeing is some homeowners are actually

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Nicola Powell: probably selling before they get into financial difficulties. So that

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Nicola Powell: doesn’t mean that they’re currently in financial distress and they’re

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Nicola Powell: a distress listing, but it might mean that they’re thinking, ”

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Nicola Powell: I’m not going to be able to meet these higher

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Nicola Powell: mortgage repayments. Let’s sell while conditions are good for selling,

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Nicola Powell: but also before I’ve got in that financially desperate state.”

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Sean Aylmer: Nicola, thank you for talking to Fear & Greed.

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Nicola Powell: Thank you.

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Sean Aylmer: That was Dr. Nicola Powell, Domain’s Chief of Research and Economics.

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Sean Aylmer: This is the Fear & Greed Business Interview. Join us every

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Sean Aylmer: morning for the full episode of Fear & Greed, Australia’s best

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Sean Aylmer: business podcast. I’m Sean Aylmer. Enjoy your day.