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Fear & Greed, Fear and Greed

The Reserve Bank board kept interest rates on hold yesterday. No surprises there – but the RBA Governor’s press conference certainly captured everyone’s attention, ranging from interest rates and inflation to jobs and Taylor Swift.

EY Chief Economist Cherelle Murphy talks to Sean Aylmer about the press conference, and gives her forecast for when rates will start coming down.

Find out more: https://fearandgreed.com.au

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Sean Aylmer: Welcome to the Fear and Greed Business interview. I’m Sean

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Sean Aylmer: Aylmer. Yesterday the Reserve Bank board kept interest rates on

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Sean Aylmer: hold at 4. 35%. It was widely anticipated, but this

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Sean Aylmer: meeting still got a lot more attention than usual because

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Sean Aylmer: it was the first in the new era of the

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Sean Aylmer: central bank. Among the changes are longer meetings, fewer of

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Sean Aylmer: them, and a press conference afterwards where we saw Reserve

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Sean Aylmer: Bank Governor Michele Bullock front the media and explained the

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Sean Aylmer: board’s thinking and assumptions about rates, inflation, wages, employment, bunch

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Sean Aylmer: of even Taylor Swift. In fact, Taylor Swift got a

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Sean Aylmer: mention yesterday. Cherelle Murphy, EC Chief Economist at EY. Cherelle, welcome

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Sean Aylmer: back to Fear and Greed.

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Cherelle Murphy: Thank you, Sean. Lovely to be here.

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Sean Aylmer: Before we get on to Taylor Swift and all things

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Sean Aylmer: press conference, no real surprise in terms of the decision

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Sean Aylmer: to keep interest rates on hold. What about the commentary

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Sean Aylmer: that went with it?

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Cherelle Murphy: You’re right, no surprise in terms of the decision. Would’ve

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Cherelle Murphy: been a real shock if they’d done something yesterday, I

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Cherelle Murphy: think given what the inflation data have been doing. The

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Cherelle Murphy: commentary itself probably a little bit on the hawkish side.

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Cherelle Murphy: So the Reserve Bank’s still clearly very worried about the

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Cherelle Murphy: risks from inflation, and they are very keen to make

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Cherelle Murphy: sure the market knows that there is not necessarily an,

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Cherelle Murphy: I guess, alleviation of some of those pressures. Plus, in

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Cherelle Murphy: fact, there may even be new pressures coming into the

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Cherelle Murphy: equation as the year rolls on. So I think the RBA

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Cherelle Murphy: wanted to make it very clear that it has not

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Cherelle Murphy: taken its eye off the ball in terms of inflation.

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Sean Aylmer: How important is it just to get that message across?

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Sean Aylmer: We have a new governor, obviously under pressure. I presume

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Sean Aylmer: she doesn’t want to look as if she doesn’t put

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Sean Aylmer: inflation front and centre of what’s going on here. So

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Sean Aylmer: how much of this is kind of jawboning almost just

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Sean Aylmer: to make sure that markets just don’t get ahead of

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Sean Aylmer: themselves on this stuff?

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Cherelle Murphy: Absolutely. The credibility is absolutely crucial as you know, Sean,

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Cherelle Murphy: to a central bank because if the punters out there

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Cherelle Murphy: don’t think that the central bank can keep inflation under

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Cherelle Murphy: control, then they won’t believe that inflation target or that

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Cherelle Murphy: magic 2. 5% per year rise in prices will be

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Cherelle Murphy: ongoing. And if they don’t believe it, then it won’t

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Cherelle Murphy: happen. So the credibility part of central banking is crucial

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Cherelle Murphy: and therefore, particularly when you have changes like this and

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Cherelle Murphy: a new governor, that new governor of course has to

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Cherelle Murphy: establish their credibility particularly quickly. Now, it’s obviously easier when

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Cherelle Murphy: that person is already well known to the market as

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Cherelle Murphy: Michele Bullock is, but she’s not so well known to

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Cherelle Murphy: mums and dads out there. So she was definitely working

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Cherelle Murphy: really hard on that today using lots of plain language,

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Cherelle Murphy: notably, lots of empathetic words too, sort of saying things

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Cherelle Murphy: that perhaps previous governors of the Reserve Bank would not

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Cherelle Murphy: have done. So they’ve been working really hard clearly on

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Cherelle Murphy: their communication over the summer, I think.

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Sean Aylmer: I want to come back to the economy, but we’ve

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Sean Aylmer: veered into the press conference discussion, it’s worth talking about.

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Sean Aylmer: For a non- seasoned media performer and Reserve Bank governors

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Sean Aylmer: have never seasoned media performers simply because they don’t front

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Sean Aylmer: the media very often, I thought she did a pretty

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Sean Aylmer: good job of speaking fairly directly and the questions came

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Sean Aylmer: from very mum’s and dad style questions to kind of

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Sean Aylmer: technical economic questions. She did a pretty good job, I think.

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Cherelle Murphy: She did, and I did note that the press room

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Cherelle Murphy: was full. Every man and his dog was there today.

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Cherelle Murphy: I was in Parliament House yesterday in fact, and noticed

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Cherelle Murphy: that all of the economic journalists weren’t there because they

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Cherelle Murphy: had all flown to Sydney for this press conference. And

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Cherelle Murphy: so therefore she got a big range of questions from

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Cherelle Murphy: the quite technical ones from the sort of Reuters and Bloombergs and AFRs of

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Cherelle Murphy: the world right through to the more mainstream media, and

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Cherelle Murphy: actually I think dealt with all of that very well.

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Cherelle Murphy: She also had a very lovely style, which she naturally

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Cherelle Murphy: does. A nervous giggle at the beginning, as I guess

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Cherelle Murphy: everyone in the room acknowledged that this is a pretty

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Cherelle Murphy: historic moment, the first time that the central bank governor

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Cherelle Murphy: has had to do that. But yeah, I thought she

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Cherelle Murphy: did a great job.

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Sean Aylmer: Stay with me, Cherelle. We’ll be back in a minute.

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Sean Aylmer: My guest this morning is EY Chief Economist Cherelle Murphy.

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Sean Aylmer: It also puts her under a bit of pressure to

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Sean Aylmer: say the right thing because we’re used to scrutinizing every

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Sean Aylmer: single word that comes out of a Reserve Bank governor,

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Sean Aylmer: she’s got to think on her feet from here on,

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Sean Aylmer: and that’s not always easy. There was a very directed

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Sean Aylmer: question about when is the next interest rate cut? And

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Sean Aylmer: she was very definitive saying, ” We’re not giving any timing

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Sean Aylmer: on that.” Now, her predecessor, Phil Lowe was crucified on

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Sean Aylmer: giving a timing that didn’t work out. There is a

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Sean Aylmer: risk though that we’re going to get too much from

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Sean Aylmer: her, I would’ve thought.

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Cherelle Murphy: Yeah, it’s a very fine line, isn’t it? And it

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Cherelle Murphy: goes back to the credibility point again. She can’t give

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Cherelle Murphy: too much away because if she gives away something accidentally,

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Cherelle Murphy: they have to follow through because if they don’t follow

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Cherelle Murphy: through, the credibility comes under question. Being too evasive or

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Cherelle Murphy: not answering questions also gets read perhaps the wrong way

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Cherelle Murphy: by the market or the more mainstream media as well.

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Cherelle Murphy: So it’s a really tricky press conference to execute beautifully,

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Cherelle Murphy: and as we saw today, it does go on for

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Cherelle Murphy: some time. So a lot of discipline needed there from

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Cherelle Murphy: the governor to make sure she’s on message every single

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Cherelle Murphy: word of that press conference.

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Sean Aylmer: Yeah. Well, let’s hope she does well in the next

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Sean Aylmer: few coming up. I want to go back to the

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Sean Aylmer: economy, Cherelle. What about the forecast that the Reserve Bank put

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Sean Aylmer: out, and particularly the inflation forecast? Obviously they think inflation

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Sean Aylmer: is falling faster than their previous forecast. Fair enough. CPI

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Sean Aylmer: figures last week showed that. But it’s kind of like

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Sean Aylmer: the last mile. That they reckon inflation will get down

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Sean Aylmer: close to 3%, but fairly quickly, but then after that,

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Sean Aylmer: it’ll take a long time to hit their mid- target range.

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Cherelle Murphy: Yeah, it’s sort of a painful drawn out process. You

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Cherelle Murphy: can get inflation down from 7% to 4% reasonably quickly,

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Cherelle Murphy: but that last percentage point is very difficult. And the

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Cherelle Murphy: Reserve Bank’s forecast update yesterday showed us that they have

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Cherelle Murphy: taken the inflation forecast down a notch really across the

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Cherelle Murphy: whole forecast period, but it doesn’t mean it gets to

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Cherelle Murphy: the end point, so the 2. 5% or the mid- target

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Cherelle Murphy: band any quicker. So it’s sort of like a step

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Cherelle Murphy: down, but no shortening of the move towards the target

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Cherelle Murphy: band. It still takes till about mid- 2026 to get

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Cherelle Murphy: inflation where they want it to be.

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Sean Aylmer: A lot of talk of excess demand. Now, for most

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Sean Aylmer: people, excess demand doesn’t really mean much. For economists like

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Sean Aylmer: yourself, excess demand is everything. Well, not everything, but very

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Sean Aylmer: important. Michele Bullock spoke about it yesterday. Just explain that

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Sean Aylmer: to us, is the fact that okay, things are slowing

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Sean Aylmer: and that, but there’s still people doing stuff in the

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Sean Aylmer: economy. What is excess demand?

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Cherelle Murphy: Well, I mean, it’s all relative to supply. So what

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Cherelle Murphy: we have been talking about through most of our careers,

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Cherelle Murphy: Sean, is that the fact that we’ve kind of had

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Cherelle Murphy: to manage demand, often trying to push demand up in

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Cherelle Murphy: fact to meet supply in the economy, to prevent unemployment.

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Cherelle Murphy: And at the moment, or since the COVID explosion of

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Cherelle Murphy: activity or mid- COVID explosion of activity, what we’ve actually

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Cherelle Murphy: had is demand exceed supply. And that’s excess demand. It’s

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Cherelle Murphy: demand growing beyond the capacity of the economy to meet

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Cherelle Murphy: it. So in managing demand, what the Reserve Bank is

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Cherelle Murphy: trying to do in this case is slow it down

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Cherelle Murphy: to the point where it can meet supply. Because when

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Cherelle Murphy: it’s at that point, then the economy is humming along

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Cherelle Murphy: nicely. It’s not creating too much inflation and hopefully it’s

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Cherelle Murphy: also maintaining full employment. So most people who want a

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Cherelle Murphy: job are in one. So I think at the moment

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Cherelle Murphy: the Reserve Bank’s still trying to find that kind of

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Cherelle Murphy: equilibrium point, and that’s the kind of year that we

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Cherelle Murphy: will go through is fine tuning to get to that equilibrium.

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Sean Aylmer: Okay. So what’s that mean for interest rates? Michele Bullock

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Sean Aylmer: was asked yesterday, she didn’t give an answer. She can

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Sean Aylmer: avoid it. Harder for you, Cherelle, to avoid this one. What do you reckon will happen to

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Sean Aylmer: rates this year?

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Cherelle Murphy: It is harder for me to avoid it. The (inaudible)

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Cherelle Murphy: is probably not quite as high, though. I think

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Cherelle Murphy: it is definitely possible that we see a rate cut

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Cherelle Murphy: by the end of the year as the market expects.

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Cherelle Murphy: The market’s got two 25 basis point cuts pretty much

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Cherelle Murphy: priced in. Most economists in the market have forecast at

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Cherelle Murphy: least one 25 basis point cut by the time next

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Cherelle Murphy: summer holidays roll around. I think though that the risks

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Cherelle Murphy: that the cash rate stays at 4. 35% are very

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Cherelle Murphy: high. So in other words, I’m thinking about it from

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Cherelle Murphy: the point of view of why would the Reserve Bank

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Cherelle Murphy: cut rates when it’s got inflation clearly above where it

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Cherelle Murphy: would like it to be. It’s above the band. There

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Cherelle Murphy: are many inflation risks on the horizon still. We’ve got

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Cherelle Murphy: a strong labor market, we’ve got a very strong housing

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Cherelle Murphy: market, we’ve got many international factors that may come into

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Cherelle Murphy: the equation and push inflation higher.
So think about global

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Cherelle Murphy: shipping costs, the potential for energy prices to get pushed

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Cherelle Murphy: up by what’s going on with the conflict in the

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Cherelle Murphy: Middle East and Ukraine. And then when we kind of

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Cherelle Murphy: put all those factors together plus climate change, these are

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Cherelle Murphy: more slow moving changes, but they certainly have many reasons

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Cherelle Murphy: or many ways in which they push prices up too.

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Cherelle Murphy: I just think that there’s a lot adding up to

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Cherelle Murphy: say it’s hard to see inflation come down quickly, sustainably,

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Cherelle Murphy: and smoothly. So unless the unemployment rate was moving up

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Cherelle Murphy: very quickly and the Reserve Bank felt like it had

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Cherelle Murphy: to rescue the economy on the downside, why would it

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Cherelle Murphy: risk its inflation target? And that’s why I think rates

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Cherelle Murphy: on hold for a sustained period of time is the

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Cherelle Murphy: most likely outcome this year.

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Sean Aylmer: You’ve got a couple of young ladies in your family,

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Sean Aylmer: a couple of daughters. Are you experiencing Taylor Swift inflation

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Sean Aylmer: or not?

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Cherelle Murphy: I’ve got one son and one daughter. I’m sure my son would not enjoy if he got a young

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Cherelle Murphy: lady. He’s 14, so.

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Sean Aylmer: He might like Taylor Swift, though.

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Cherelle Murphy: Well, yeah, he does. Everyone loves Taylor Swift, don’t they?

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Sean Aylmer: Yeah, that’s true. That’s true. Yeah.

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Cherelle Murphy: Unfortunately, we are not experiencing Taylor Swift inflation because we

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Cherelle Murphy: were not lucky enough to get tickets. And so all

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Cherelle Murphy: the paraphernalia that goes with it is absent from my

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Cherelle Murphy: house, but I think I’m probably the worst offender, Sean.

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Cherelle Murphy: I’m probably the biggest fan in the household, so.

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Sean Aylmer: Is that right? I’m a bit relieved that my daughter didn’t

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Sean Aylmer: get Taylor Swift tickets, because as you said, that saved

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Sean Aylmer: me not just the cost of the tickets, but everything

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Sean Aylmer: that goes with it. Fair bit in that, Cherelle. Thank

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Sean Aylmer: you very much for talking to Fear and Greed.

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Cherelle Murphy: My pleasure, Sean.

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Sean Aylmer: That was EY Chief Economist Cherelle Murphy. This is the

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Sean Aylmer: Fear and Greed business interview. Join us every morning for

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Sean Aylmer: the full episode of Fear and Greed, Australia’s best business

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Sean Aylmer: podcast. I’m Sean Aylmer. Have a great day.