Auctions worse than COVID; Spotify hit with AI music flood; Excel ‘Olympics’

Auctions worse than COVID; Spotify hit with AI music flood; Excel ‘Olympics’

News in brief

Global AI stocks are teetering on the edge of a major sell-off, after a Chinese artificial intelligence company, Moonshot, unveiled a new model, Kimi K3, which it claims offers similar performance to Anthropic and Open AI models.

 

Coles has walked away from talks to buy pet care business Greencross, following nine months of negotiations.

 

Australia’s IPO market remains subdued even though there is a global rebound in listings. Local companies raised just $394 million through ASX floats in the first half of 2026, compared to $1.4 billion last year, according to HLP Mann Judd.

 

Spotify is being flooded with a wave of artificial intelligence-generated music, as creators find ways to make, and game, the system which pays $11 billion to artists annually.

 

Irishman Diarmuid Early is the Excel Landmark Battle champion, after a four-city event across London, Paris, New York and Sydney, winning a seven level, 30 minute spreadsheet challenge after what organisers described as a remarkable comeback.

Fear-o-meter

The weakness in the auction market is happening when house prices are falling, notably in Sydney and Melbourne, where prices are already down in the two to three per cent range.

 

Few are calling for a mega-slump in the market, though many think prices will fall.

 

AMP’s Shane Oliver is forecasting another six per cent drop over the next 12 months reflecting poor affordability, RBA rate hikes, reduced investor demand flowing from the winding back of negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount and poor confidence.

 

Most of the major banks are forecasting flat to downward prices. It isn’t a bad thing. Over the past 12 years, the median house price has more than doubled, and affordability remains an impediment to the market, according to Cotality.

 

It might just be time for house prices rises to take a break.

Fear & Greed Q+A today

On the week ahead for the economy, with an explainer on employment data - everything you've ever wondered about jobs, under-employment, the participation rate and more:

 

“We've had a slowing in the growth of hours worked, even though employment—apart from the monthly volatility—is still growing at about one to one-and-a-half per cent.

 

That's a signal that businesses are saying, 'Yeah, we don't want to sack our staff.' Businesses don't want to lay people off because it might just be a temporary slowdown, and it's very hard and very expensive to rehire them.

 

So they'll try to keep their staff, they'll cut their hours, and then finally they'll reduce their workforce. That's how unemployment goes up.”

The preliminary auction clearance rate (PCR) across the country has fallen back to 50 per cent, although there was a lower withdrawal rate over the past week – meaning fewer people pulled their homes off the market ahead of auction day. That is the silver lining in an otherwise cloudy outlook for the housing market.

 

A week ago, the PCR was 55 per cent and the final rate was 48.5 per cent, so on that basis, the number of homes not sold over the past week, is probably getting close to three out of every five, according to Cotality data.

 

The last time there has been such a weak market was 2018 when the banking regulator tightened lending standards. The current market is worse than during COVID.

 

In 2026, it’s a combination of tax changes, higher interest rates and unaffordability culling the lending market.

 

Melbourne was the busiest market over the past week with a PCR of 56.5 per cent which is steady. Sydney fell back to nearly 47 per cent while Brisbane was just 36 per cent.

Greed-o-meter

Rank	City	2026 USD	2016 USD
1	Melbourne	111.2	58.9
2	Sydney	109.5	60.2
3	Auckland	68.6	48.3
4	Wellington	67.1	52.2
5	London	63.9	39.7
6	Birmingham	62.8	37.1
7	Dublin	61.6	37.4
8	Edinburgh	60.5	38.7
9	New York	54.1	38.9
10	Oslo	53.4	44.0

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Melbourne and Sydney are the two most expensive cities in the world for  two common vices: a drink and a cigarette. The Deutsche Bank Research Institute's 'Oasis Index' measures the cost of two packets of cigarettes and five beers across a number of cities. Australia's high tobacco and alcohol excises mean we're at the top of the list, with Melbourne #1 at $US111, or around $160 AUD.

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Source: Deutsche Bank Research Institute