Budget spoiled by Iran war; Coles’ Ozempic economy ; Wall St adds $14tr in six weeks
Published: May 10, 2026
Budget spoiled by Iran war; Coles’ Ozempic economy ; Wall St adds $14tr in six weeks
News in brief
One Nation has recorded a resounding victory in the Farrer by-election, the seat vacated by former Liberal leader Susan Ley. It is the first time the coalition has lost the seat in nearly 80 years.
Coles is investing in the Ozempic economy, tailoring its home-brand products for the increasing number of consumers using GLP-1 weight loss treatment. Chief executive, Leah Weckert said there is a large opportunity for the supermarket in health-conscious shoppers.
A complete set of Grange Hermitage wines, 70 bottles from 1951 to 2021, is up for auction, with an estimated value of $380,000.
The national housing market does not look healthy, with the preliminary clearance rate over the past week falling to 56.5 per cent, the second lowest level this year behind the Easter weekend.
The S&P500 closed at another record high over the weekend, as the relentless rally in semiconductor companies continues. The benchmark index has added $US10 trillion in value in the last 29 trading days and is up more than 30 per cent in the past year.
Fear-o-meter
AMP chief economist Shane Oliver on the federal budget
"The Federal Budget has more riding on it than has been the case for many years with the Government promising a focus on reforms to address years of poor productivity while at the same time dealing with the impact of the global oil supply shock.
"Unfortunately, the latter could derail the former – but so far the signs are positive that it won’t. The Treasurer has promised a “responsible budget focussed on resilience and reform” with objectives around cost-of-living support that doesn’t add to inflation, budget savings, lifting productivity and capacity, tax reform, improving economic resilience and intergenerational equity.
"Ideally the budget needs to do these three things: cut government spending by around $100bn over the period to 2029-30 taking it back to around its long-term norm of around 24.8% of GDP to provide more space for private spending; provide serious tax reform and not just tax hikes; and slash red tape and provide more incentives to invest."
Fear & Greed Q+A today
On politics versus economics in the budget
"Governments are constantly asking what it means electorally before they ask about the economic consequences. When you start talking about things like scaling back franking credits, negative gearing or capital gains tax concessions, you get a very loud chorus from a small minority that’s very noisy. That creates political problems. At the same time, governments know there’s truth in the argument that government spending adds to growth and demand while the Reserve Bank is trying to squeeze demand by hiking interest rates. So they’re very aware of that balancing act."
The 2026 federal budget, due to be released at 7:30pm tomorrow night, will focus on tax reform, productivity and savings. So far, we know that there will be changes to tax rules applying to capital gains, negative gearing and trusts. There could be a small cash-splash for wage earners in the $200 to $300 range.
Business should benefit from more generous rules around R&D expenditure and there is an extra $53 billion over ten years for defence. Yesterday the government announced $2 billion to enable infrastructure building – things like water and sewerage piping for housing developments.
One the cost side, there will be big savings from the National Disability Insurance Scheme in future years as many programs are passed to the states. But there will, no doubt, be spending pressures in health and aged care.
This week the team from Ausbiz, including Juliette Saly and Nadine Blayney, join us on Fear & Greed. Watch live at ausbiz.com.au and sign up for a daily market wrap at ausbiz.com/newsletter.
Greed-o-meter
| Stock | Market value ($USb) | Change one year (pc) |
|---|---|---|
| Nvidia | 5,230 | +85 |
| Alphabet | 4,840 | +157 |
| Apple | 4,310 | +48 |
| Microsoft | 3,080 | -5 |
| Amazon | 2,930 | +41 |
| Broadcom | 2,040 | +24 |
| Meta | 1,550 | +3 |
| Tesla | 1,340 | +44 |
| Walmart | 1,040 | +35 |
| Berkshire Hathaway | 1,030 | -7 |
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Source:Market Watch