NAB tips rates to fall; iconic retailer collapses; World Cup politics
News in brief
Recently appointed Liberal Party President, and former PM, Tony Abbott, has endorsed the coalition swapping preferences with One Nation. Opposition leader Angus Taylor, when asked about the comment, said the Liberals would work with others to get rid of Labor – not a rejection of the idea.
Apple has credited Australia’s world-first social media ban for under 16-year-olds as inspiration for a new suite of child-safety controls on its devices.
Iconic retailer Barbeques Galore has collapsed, after its main financier couldn’t agree on trading terms, leaving the group without funding.
OpenAI has filed to go public in a blockbuster listing likely to value the ChatGPT creator at more than $US1 trillion as it races rival Anthropic to Wall Street.
Football’s World Cup starts Friday morning, Australian time, with 48 nations competing across the US, Canada and Mexico. However, perhaps not surprisingly, it is becoming increasingly political, with the Iranian team now basing itself in Mexico after several staff members were refused US visas.
Fear-o-meter
NAB Economics RBA Watch:
The next move in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing remains uncertain.
NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.
“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain. In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.
Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.
“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”
Dr Sally Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.
“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”
“In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”
Fear & Greed Q+A today
On why philanthropy is increasingly becoming part of mainstream financial planning, and the potential for more Australians to enjoy the tax benefits of being philanthropic:
"The tax data shows that about half of people who earn more than a million dollars a year are not making any claims for any charitable deductions.
There are about 12,000 of those people, Sean. So it’s not a small number of people.
Now, they may be giving and not collecting receipts, but that would be foolish if that’s the case. They may be giving to their local church or somewhere else that’s not tax deductible. But they’re not giving to organisations like the Smith Family, Red Cross, Fred Hollows and thousands of smaller charities as well.
And that’s a lost opportunity for Australia.
Partly that’s because not enough professional advisers — accountants and financial advisers — are aware of the arrangements that allow people to bank deductions now and use them over future years."
Australian consumers remain deeply pessimistic with the Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment Index falling to its lowest in its 50-year history.
Meanwhile, business confidence rose last month but remains firmly negative, even though cost pressures show some early signs of easing, according to the National Australia Bank monthly survey.
The readings came as NAB, on the back of a run of weak economic data, scrapped its forecast for an August interest rate rise, saying the Reserve Bank’s next move is more likely to be a cut as economic momentum slows and financial conditions tighten. It forecast a reduction in about 12 months’ time.
Greed-o-meter
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Global supply chain pressures have risen in recent months, returning to levels last seen during the pandemic. World Bank data shows shipping container capacity tied up due to delays and reroutings reached around 2.06 million TEUs in May 2026, close to its previous peak of 2.16 million TEUs recorded in early 2022. And for those playing at home - a TEU is a twenty-foot equivalent unit, the standard size of a shipping container.
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