NAB's huge rate call; Dutton stays silent; Tabcorp's game changer
Published: May 07, 2025
NAB's huge rate call; Dutton stays silent; Tabcorp's game changer
News in brief
NAB has announced a one per cent jump in half year profit to $3.6 billion, with the bank showing resilience in the face of very competitive mortgage and lending markets. The performance pushed NAB’s market capitalisation above Westpac, making it the country’s second largest bank.
Counting in the federal election continues with about 80 per cent completed. Labor, which has a massive majority, is struggling in three so-called safe seats, while the Teal challenge to the Liberals is fading somewhat.
Tabcorp has gained regulatory approval to trial live betting on its apps in pubs and clubs, a move CEO Gillon McLachlan says is the future of wagering.
A law firm has been fined more than $50,000 for forcing a junior lawyer to work up to 24-hour days and watch an ice hockey movie at 1am so she could understand her boss’s philosophical position.
India has conducted targeted military strikes against Pakistan, which said it shot down five Indian jets in retaliation, in an escalation of tension between the two nuclear powers after a militant attack last month in Kashmir that killed 26 people.
Fear-o-meter
National Australia Bank’s chief economist, Sally Auld, is no slouch when it comes to picking the economy. She took over the top job from long time NAB chief economist Alan Oster earlier this year. Now she says there will be 1.5 percentage points in interest rate cuts by February next year.
That would take the cash rate to 2.6 per cent, and home lending rates to around high 4s, low 5 per cent.
While other economists have walked back predictions of multiple rate reductions this year, Auld reckons there will be six cuts in the next 12 months. It’s an aggressive forecast from someone who has access to credit and debit card data and should have a good feel for what’s happening on Main Street.
The only way the cash rate will fall to 2.6 per cent is if the local economy takes a serious nose-dive, so implicit in her forecasts is a tough time ahead, in part due to Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Time will tell if she’s correct.
Who's talking today?
On the various conflicts around the world (Gaza, Ukraine, Pakistan/India), the role of the US as global peacekeepers, and what a shift in strategy under Donald Trump means for other developed nations:
"What I think the trajectory is, I think the United States is going to increasingly withdraw. And I think that the smart thing for America's allies, or perhaps I should say former allies, is to try and think about what an alternative is going to look like to that. I think that Europe is more vulnerable or more likely to have an American cut-off than the Asia Pacific.
Presidents going all the way back to Richard Nixon, perhaps even before that, have spoken about Europe free riding... American policymakers have been warning Europe for a while that that can't continue. They were doing it very politely under Obama, a little bit less politely under Trump one. Now under Trump two, it's really cold turkey."
It’s Thursday the 8th of May 2025, and National Australia Bank announces a solid half year profit and tips multiple cuts in interest rates. Former Opposition Leader Peter Dutton opts for a graceful silence about the election. And a law firm is fined after forcing a junior lawyer to work 24 hours straight. Plus Tabcorp gains approval to launch live betting on its app – a potential game changer for the group - and India and Pakistan attack each other.
Greed-o-meter
| Bank | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Commonwealth Bank | $277.7B |
| 2 | NAB | $109.6B |
| 3 | Westpac | $108.8B |
| 4 | ANZ | $89.1B |
| 5 | Macquarie | $75.4B |
| 6 | Suncorp | $22.5B |
| 7 | Bendigo and Adelaide Bank | $6.5B |
| 8 | Bank of Queensland | $4.9B |
| 9 | Judo Bank | $1.6B |
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Yesterday NAB became the second largest bank in the country, pushing ahead of Westpac, but they're both still miles behind Commonwealth Bank. This list of Aussie banks by market cap shows the incredible spread of value between the first and ninth largest banks in the country.
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