US tariff decision bad for Australia; PM to focus on economy; Winter Olympics glory

US tariff decision bad for Australia; PM to focus on economy; Winter Olympics glory

News in brief

About 60 per cent of companies have reported their December half profits. Mining earnings are up by about 33 per cent, banks are up eight per cent, energy companies down 18 per cent and the rest up four per cent. That’s helped push the local share market close to record levels even though there’s plenty of reasons investors should be cautious.

 

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said tackling cost-of-living pressures remains front and centre for the Albanese government, alongside a focus on national security.

 

Great Britain has, for the first time, docked a nuclear-powered submarine at Western Australia’s HMAS Stirling, marking a major step in Australia’s preparation for its own fleet over nuclear-powered boats.

 

Older Australians, on average, report significantly higher wellbeing, lower financial stress, and greater satisfaction across lifestyle, financial, and emotional measures, according to the NAB Wellbeing Index. By contrast, young adults face the highest stress, frequent difficulties with essential expenses, and a pronounced inability to raise emergency funds.

 

The Winter Olympics has come to an end. The event in northern Italy is considered one of the great games, headlined by Norway’s Johannes Klaebo who after winning the cross-country 50km men’s mass start over the weekend, set a record for golds in one Games – six - and a career - eleven.

Fear-o-meter

The US Supreme Court’s decision to not allow Donald Trump’s tariffs has created uncertainty, but the world has learnt to live with that. What does it mean?

 

The bilateral trade deals announced since Liberation Day will probably stay in place, but refunds of tariffs paid to date – possibly around $US180bn – will be messy.

 

Trump said his Administration will undertake trade reviews on specific countries and sectors. That could cause an outbreak of friction between US and its trading partners because it becomes much more personal. That will also take time.

 

Also, the world has changed since Liberation Day last April. It appears that bigger economies, notably the European Union, are much more likely to stand up to Trump going forward.

 

Last month, when Trump again suggested the US take over Greenland, rather than try and appease him, Europe threatened retaliation. Trump backed down and Greenland hasn’t been in the headlines since.

 

The loss of revenue from the tariffs, which US consumers had largely borne, will push the US budget further into deficit. Tariffs were supposed to fund Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, which included tax cuts and more defence spending, among other things.  

 

Finally, the ruling shows that the Supreme Court will check some of Trump’s powers, which is a good thing.

Fear & Greed Q+A today

On the week ahead for the economy, including what the monthly inflation figure for January can and can't tell us:

 

“It can’t be definitive in terms of tracking a turning point higher or lower in the inflation rate. It’s one month’s number. It will be heavily influenced by things like petrol prices, which we know were down in the month. We’ve got to remember that January tends to be — not always — but tends to be a seasonal month where prices go up. Firms say, first of January, I’m putting up the price of my cappuccinos and my haircuts and whatever. So that tends to be a bit of a seasonally high month.

 

What it can tell us is some guide on the components of inflation. So where has the inflation momentum gone up or down? You’re building another monthly data point on things like electricity subsidies, the cost of healthcare, dwelling rent. We’ll see the top line number probably still holding high in headline terms around about 3.7, 3.8 per cent. The trimmed mean might be down to about 3.2 with a bit of luck. So tracking higher, but we’ll just be looking at that — obviously that’s the main game in town.”

Donald Trump has introduced a 15 per cent global tariff for all goods entering the US, after the Supreme Court ruled that the Trump Administration’s tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful. The new tariffs are in place for 150 days but need Congressional support to go longer. Trump has promised to find new ways of levying duties on goods coming into the country and was angered by the 6-3 decision of the court, saying the judges who voted against the tariffs should be ashamed of themselves. The universal 15 per cent tariff is bad news for Australia, since we only had a 10 per cent tariff imposed previously. Same deal for the UK. Yesterday Trade Minister Don Farrell blasted the global tariff as “unjustified”.

Greed-o-meter

Issue	In top 5
Cost of living	77%
Housing supply and affordability	50%
Hospitals and healthcare	46%
The economy and finances	39%
Immigration and border security	34%
The environment and climate change	26%
Employment and wages	24%
Interest rates	23%
Energy	21%
Aged care	19%
Social cohesion (incl. dealing with radicalisation, violent extremism)	19%

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Cost of living remains the most pressing issue for Australians, with 77% of people including it in their top five concerns the federal government should focus on, according to JWS Research's True Issues survey.

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Source: JWS Research