Wall St boom as ASX lags; Aussies’ love affair with ETFs; Trump launches Trump TV
News in brief
RBA’s jobs warning: Governor Michele Bullock says unemployment of between 4.5 and 5 per cent may be needed to ease inflation pressures. She says monetary policy must keep inflation expectations anchored and prevent price shocks flowing into wages and other costs.
Private credit on notice: ASIC says it is “beyond warnings” with Australia's $200 billion private credit industry. The regulator is threatening enforcement action against managers that fail to properly write down distressed loans, amid concerns about governance, valuations and risk management.
ETF boom: A record of almost $7 billion flowed into ETFs in August, taking the value of Australian ETFs to $375.6 billion. Investors are increasingly looking offshore, with global shares attracting 56 per cent of ETF allocations during the month, compared with 17 per cent for Australian equities.
Trump TV: Donald Trump has launched a White House “Trump TV” channel as his fight with major US news organisations escalates. CNN, MS NOW and Politico are suing after being banned from the White House, while ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox News have suspended pooled television coverage in protest.
Super for housing: Liberal Senator Andrew Bragg wants Australia to consider allowing people to use super as mortgage collateral, an offset or to pay down housing debt earlier. Opposition Leader Angus Taylor stressed the proposals are not Coalition policy.
Fear-o-meter
What CBA's Household Spending Insights tells us about the economy:
Australian households are showing increasing signs of cutting back, as spending increased by just 0.1 per cent in August, according to the latest CommBank Household Spending Insights.
The latest data showed monthly gains across five of the 12 categories, with an equal number recording falls. The strongest gains in August were in essential categories including transport, insurance and health. By contrast, the biggest declines in August were in education, motor vehicles, food & beverage goods and household goods.
CBA data suggests there has been a broad-based slowdown in spending when compared to the rates of growth seen in 2025 and through the start of 2026.
Slower household income growth, together with the "wealth effect" flowing from lower housing prices, is expected to continue to put further downward pressure on spending.
CBA now expects the RBA to lift the cash rate by 25bps to 4.60% at its 28‑29 September meeting. The risk of a November rate hike is dependent on upcoming inflation figures and the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East, as well as oil prices.
Fear & Greed Q+A today
On the case for building an 'anti-AI' investment portfolio, and why companies like JB Hi-Fi might be a good fit:
“What makes JB Hi-Fi wonderful is that it's the lowest-cost retailer in the world. There is no other retailer on the planet that has a lower cost of doing business. And those kind of cost efficiencies are embedded in its business model.
“It faces almost zero competitors. Harvey Norman is also a large competitor, but I would argue it sells to different customers and different segments. So I treat this almost like a Woolies — it's a staple rather than a consumer discretionary business. And at the moment you're buying this with a lot of fear attached to it because interest rates are rising and the consensus view is that that will create lower sales for JB. That might be true for the short term, but I think over the long run the very strong competitive position of the business will shine.”
General information only. Seek advice tailored to your circumstances before making investment decisions.
Wall Street is surging again, with big tech and chipmakers driving the Nasdaq 100 to record territory and pushing the S&P 500 close to its all-time high.
The Nasdaq jumped 2.3 per cent, helped by an 11 per cent surge in Meta after the rapid take-up of its new AI assistant, Muse. Chipmakers are also back in favour: AMD briefly topped a $US1 trillion valuation, while Intel jumped 12 per cent.
Oil has helped change the mood. Brent crude has fallen back towards $US100 a barrel, easing fears that higher energy costs will deliver another inflation shock. Wall Street is now up about 13 per cent this year and more than 20 per cent from its March low.
But the rally remains heavily concentrated in technology. That helps explain why Australia has been left behind: the ASX is dominated by banks and miners rather than the giant technology companies powering US markets.
Greed-o-meter
Forwarded from a friend? Sign up to our daily newsletter